Cotton Trend Bearish, Could Fall to 85 Cents a Pound

Fine Cotton was the name of an unimpressive racehorse in Australia. The poorly performing horse was replaced with a much superior look-alike substitute, which won a major race at long odds. The same switching tactics have been seen with the Indian government position on cotton export sales and the results are very similar. It has little impact on the fundamentals of the market.

The weekly chart provides the best perspective on cotton. The 2010 and 2011 price action was dominated by two parabolic trends. These are typical of speculative markets fueled by cheap capital.